Spanish economy

The Rafael del Pino Foundation wishes to make accessible the knowledge on the impact on the Spanish economy of alternative economic policy measures aimed at promoting macroeconomic stability, full employment, economic growth and social cohesion. To this end, it offers simulation exercises that allow us to know the estimated effect of these measures.

Simulated effects on the Spanish economy of different fiscal stimuli

Based on the REMS model (dynamic general equilibrium model, designed for the evaluation and simulation of economic policies), we have built this tool to simulate the evolution of GDP and employment, depending on three variables: the fiscal policy (increase in public expenditure or reduction of different taxes), the consolidation instrument (fiscal instrument that the government would use to adjust the debt-to-GDP ratio to its initial level) and the speed of consolidation (time it would take for the government to activate the consolidation instrument).

Methodology – Credits

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Estímulo Fiscal

Instrumento de consolidación

Velocidad de consolidación

PIB 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Previsión
PIB Crecimiento
1.169.572
1.195.302 +2.2%
1.218.013 +1.9%
1.239.937 +1.8%
1.262.256 +1.8%
Millones de €
Simulacion
PIB Variación
1.169.572
Millones de €
Diferencia NetaAcumulada
Empleo equivalente 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Previsión
Empleo Crecimiento
18.400
20.298 +2%
20.684 +1.9%
21.056 +1.8%
21.414 +1.8%
Miles
Simulacion
Empleo Variación
18.400
Miles
Diferencia NetaAcumulada

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Previsión
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Methodology

The data on GDP and the use of this simulation tool are based on the forecasts made by the Ministry of Economy in the 2019-2022 Stability Programme.

In order to make the various simulated fiscal policies comparable, it has been decided that all of them will increase the public deficit by one percentage point of GDP. Likewise, the fiscal rule used guarantees that, given the same volume of the deficit, the correction of the deficit to make the debt sustainable is always of the same magnitude, regardless of the policy being simulated

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