Past, present and future? in the reign of the world's dollar
Kenneth Rogoff and Joaquín Artés.
The Rafael del Pino Foundation organised, on 9 June 2025, the dialogue "Past, present and future uncertainty? in the reign of the dollar in the world", in which the following speakers took part Kenneth Rogoff y Joaquín Artés.
Kenneth Rogoff is a prominent American economist and chess player. He graduated from Yale University and received his PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Throughout his career, he has combined his deep knowledge of economic theory with analysis of global economic policy problems. Rogoff worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), where he was Chief Economist and Director of the Research Department from 2001 to 2003. He has also taught at leading universities, including Princeton and Harvard, where he is currently Professor of Economics and Public Policy. He is known for his research on macroeconomics, exchange rates and financial crises. Together with Carmen Reinhart, he is the author of the influential book This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (2009), which analyses historical patterns of financial crises. In addition to his academic career, Rogoff was an elite chess player in his youth, earning the title of International Chess Grandmaster. Over the years, Kenneth Rogoff has influenced debates on monetary policy, public debt and economic growth, and is considered one of the most influential contemporary economists.
Joaquín Artés is Professor of Applied Economics at the Complutense University of Madrid. Specialised in political economy, regulation and quantitative analysis, he has developed an outstanding academic and research career, publishing in leading international journals in his field. Artés has focused much of his work on issues such as the efficiency of public institutions, electoral economics and the impact of public policies. His approach combines empirical rigour with solid theoretical analysis. In addition, he is Rafael del Pino Excellence FellowThis recognition encourages young Spanish researchers with international projection to develop their work in prestigious academic environments.
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Summary:
On 9 June last, the Rafael del Pino Foundation hosted the dialogue "Past, present and future? in the reign of the dollar in the world".The International Monetary Fund's economist Kenneth Rogoff, professor at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, on the occasion of the publication of his latest book, "The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund: A New Approach to the World Economy". Our Dollar, Your Problem. He was accompanied by Joaquín Artés, Professor of Economics at the Complutense University of Madrid.
During the event, Rogoff reviewed seven decades of dollar hegemony as the dominant currency in global markets. While this position has brought the United States significant economic and political benefits - such as the ability to finance itself at lower cost or to impose effective financial sanctions - it has also created new vulnerabilities in an environment of increasing geopolitical and technological competition.
A historic rise... and its limits
Rogoff explained how the dollar established itself as the anchor currency of the international monetary system after World War II, especially during the Bretton Woods system. Although this regime collapsed in 1971 with the suspension of the dollar's convertibility into gold, the greenback maintained its centrality thanks to the strength of the US economy, its financial system and its military power.
However, the author argues that the dollar reached its zenith more than a decade ago. Since then, other powers - especially China and the eurozone - have gained ground. Expanding international trade, technological advances and Washington's geopolitical use of the financial system are progressively eroding the dollar's appeal.
Failed attempts at alternatives
The euro, the yen and the renminbi have been the most serious candidates to challenge the dollar's dominance, but all have faced limits. Rogoff pointed to key strategic mistakes, such as Greece's admission to the euro, prolonged deflation in Japan or excessive state control in China. Nevertheless, he noted that Europe could increase its monetary weight if it moves forward with fiscal integration and common defence, especially in the face of a possible second term for Donald Trump.
Towards a multipolar world in foreign exchange?
Rogoff argues that we are not facing an immediate replacement of the dollar, but a progressive diversification of the international monetary system. The rise of cryptocurrencies, the development of alternative payment systems (such as those promoted by China) and the digitalisation of money are driving this trend. In his opinion, this evolution is inevitable, although he warns of systemic risks if the new financial technologies are not adequately regulated.
The role of monetary policy
He recalled the importance of preserving the independence of central banks, an idea he himself helped to develop in the 1980s. In the face of political pressures to keep interest rates low, Rogoff argued that only a credible monetary authority can prevent inflation crises and loss of confidence in the currency.
What can come?
The economist concluded with a warning: while dollar hegemony has allowed the US to finance growing deficits without immediate consequences, this situation is not sustainable. "We don't know when the crisis will come, but when it does, it will be deep," he said. Countries tend to adjust their imbalances only after the collapse," he added.
The Rafael del Pino Foundation is not responsible for the comments, opinions or statements made by the people who participate in its activities and which are expressed as a result of their inalienable right to freedom of expression and under their sole responsibility. The contents included in the summary of this conference are the result of the debates held at the meeting held for this purpose at the Foundation and are the responsibility of their authors.
The Rafael del Pino Foundation is not responsible for any comments, opinions or statements made by third parties. In this respect, the FRP is not obliged to monitor the views expressed by such third parties who participate in its activities and which are expressed as a result of their inalienable right to freedom of expression and under their own responsibility. The contents included in the summary of this conference are the result of the discussions that took place during the conference organised for this purpose at the Foundation and are the sole responsibility of its authors.
