Russia's opposition to Putin and the impact of sanctions
Natalia Arno, Vladimir Milov and José Ignacio Torreblanca
On 1 June 2023, the Rafael del Pino Foundation organised the dialogue "Russian opposition to Putin and the impact of sanctions" with the participation of Natalia Arno, Vladimir Milov and José Ignacio Torreblanca.
Natalia Arnobetween 2004 and 2014 he worked for the Russian office of the International Republican Institute, and in 2014 he founded the Free Russia Foundation with the aim of promoting democracy and positive change in their country. The Free Russia Foundation has branches in the USA, Europe and the Caucasus, with active centres in Brussels, Berlin, Prague and Vilnius. The foundation was declared undesirable by the Russian government in 2019.
Vladimir Milov was Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation in the governments of Vladimir Putin and Mikhail Kasyanov and, until 2013, Chairman of the Russian Energy Council. Energy Policy Institutea Think Tank independent. Very close to Alexei Navalny, Milov's political career was marked by his founding and participation in three successive democratic parties and anti-corruption coalitions until he left the country in April 2018.
José Ignacio Torreblanca D. in political science from the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM). He is a full professor at the Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED) and Doctor Member of the Instituto Juan March de Estudios e Investigaciones. He has been a Fulbright Scholar, European Union-United States, Professor at the George Washington University (D.C.) as well as postdoctoral researcher at the European University Institute of Florence (EUI). He has also been Senior Researcher, Europe Area, at the Real Instituto Elcano de Estudios Internacionales (2004-2007) and member of the Editorial Board and Opinion Director of the newspaper ELPAIS (2016-2018). Since 2008 he has been Director of the Madrid office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). José Ignacio Torreblanca is a regular contributor to national and foreign media. He is currently a columnist for the newspaper El MUNDO and a contributor to RNE1 and RTVE. He is a member of the Editorial Board of the magazines esglobal.es, Política Exterior and Ethic, as well as a member of the Scientific Council of the Real Instituto Elcano, the Board of Trustees of the Fundación Felipe González and the Institut Barcelona d'Estudis Internacionals (IBEI) and a member of the Advisory Board and Director of the Scientific Committee of the Hermes Institute and the Open Internet Governance Institute of ESADE.
Summary:
On 1 June 2023, the Rafael del Pino Foundation organised the dialogue "Russian opposition to Putin and the impact of sanctions". The event was attended by Natalia Arno, founder of the Free Russia Foundation, and Vladimir Milov, former deputy energy minister of the Russian Federation in the governments of Vladimir Putin and Mikhail Kasyanov and with a political career marked by his founding and participation in three successive democratic parties and anti-corruption coalitions until he left the country in April 2018.
Natalia Arno: There are quite a few similarities between Russia and Spain. Both countries are rich in terms of history and culture, which is why it is a pity that what happened happened. Why is Russia not able to bring out the best in its people, as Spain does? We are known as a country of aggressors, of hackers, of war criminals. This aggression against Ukraine is terrible, it is the worst possible scenario and it affects the whole world. It is also terrible for the Russian Federation.
There are also many people inside the country who are against the war. I was one of the first who had to leave Russia in 2012. Many of us who worked for democracy had to leave. In December of that year I was told, at gunpoint, that I had 48 hours to pack my bags and leave.
The first country I went to was Lithuania. There I realised that I could continue to fight for Russian freedom from anywhere on the globe. I went to live in several countries, and then I went to live in California, where I set up the foundation. We set up the first regional office in Kiev and worked a lot with the Ukrainians. Now we are trying to help them with the issue of Ukrainians in Russian prisons. Our second office is in Brussels and we have offices in many parts of the world.
In 2019, the Russian government designated our foundation as non grata, so anyone working with us can be imprisoned. The cost of speaking freely in Russia is extremely high. Despite this, many Russians protest. There are a lot of people who do support Putin, because they are brainwashed, but there are also a lot of very brave people. Protests started to happen day after day, but very little is known about them because there is no independent media.
More and more people are dissatisfied with what is happening in Russia, they are waking up. Many Russians want to support Ukraine. There are many activists in Russia. We have studies on the Kremlin's influence in the West. Russia abuses institutions abroad. One chapter is dedicated to Spain, about how Russia is trying to destabilise electoral processes abroad.
When the war started, we helped many Ukrainians to reach the Polish border. The regime made a mistake in invading Ukraine as it did, because it became clear to everyone that this cannot be the case and because, sooner or later, all dictatorships fall. Democracy is the only guarantee of stability and that is what the Russians need because what Putin is doing is disrupting everything, he is an agent of evil. Supporting Ukraine means supporting Russia's move towards democracy.
Vladimir Milov: Many Russians have always been very fond of Ukraine and Ukrainians. They have been fortunate to have that very talented nation as neighbours. Since the Soviet Union we have been very dependent on energy and we have had many Ukrainians working in it. The creator of the Russian electricity system was also of Ukrainian origin. What Putin is doing is said to be in the name of the Russian people, but that is not true.
How did we get here? A short answer is with authoritarian power hijacking the country itself. But you don't come in, win the elections and say you are a dictator. No. You do it gradually, by controlling the judges, the media, step by step. Then happened what happened in Georgia, in Ukraine. The free people of the world always have to be alert because when a strong leader says he is more perfect than the institutions, you have to be alert. That affects all of us because when a leader abuses human rights in his country, he wants to export that behaviour. Who supports Hizbola, who threatens Taiwan? So the world has to be vigilant.
In Russia, people are in a difficult situation. They have endured propaganda for twenty years and are disconnected from the rest of the world. There are many people responsible. First of all, the Russian people, who have been cut off from reality for many years. Putin increasingly repressed demonstrations, banned participation in elections, put in jail anyone who asked for more freedom, anyone who defied him had to go into exile or be imprisoned. If there had been free elections in 2018, we wouldn't be where we are now because there was already a lot of protest on the streets. Putin hates us because of this different image we have of what Russia can be one day. This responsible, peaceful Russia exists and we are doing everything we can to make it a reality.
Military victory in Ukraine is essential to defeat Putin. We all need it because we need the free world to be able to defend itself against these attacks on international peace. We also need the Russian people inside Russia to react. If Putin is not challenged at home, he will strike again. He or the madman who replaces him. It's mutual aid, the two go together.
Natalia Arno: Ukraine's victory is very important and very fair. But it will not be enough. For the Russian democrats, the battle will be in Russia itself. The people have been subjected to this propaganda for so long that everything has to be explained to them clearly. Besides, Putin's propaganda was very clever and that's how he began to gain more and more power. They tell people not to believe that they live in a democracy and it's that easy. You have to defend it.
People enjoyed life and the first freedoms that were seen were somewhat different. But then politics started to interfere and things changed. A Russian political historian who was imprisoned talked to his cellmates and on the fourth day they put on the only channel that is not a propaganda channel but a cultural channel. One of the main mistakes of the Kremlin was the World Cup, when the Russians had been told for many years that everyone wants to destroy the Russians, but watching the football matches they realised that there was no such enmity as they had been told.
Then, waging war through drones, sabotage, shows the public that the regime is not as resilient as they have been made out to be. In many Russian cities, for them it is not a full-scale war, but a limited military operation. Those who go to war in Ukraine are the poorest regions. There was a deliberate policy to impoverish those republics. That is where they are recruiting the soldiers they are sending to Ukraine. The drones are something they see, something real, so they can begin to understand what is going on.
Vladimir Milov: Many Russians had realised before the drone attacks that Putin had got us into something horrible. The drone attack confirmed it. Now people realise that they are caught like a mouse in a trap, that they have no political rights, that if they want to protest they go to jail. We are past that point. There was an article in a Russian newspaper. The correspondent was in the conflict region and talked to the residents. Five years ago they voted 80% for Putin. He spoke to them and they told him that they did not agree with the Ukrainians. Another said that what the Russian leaders should do is to go there and live there for a year. They don't hate Ukrainians.
Russia's security council meets every Friday and the 99% of this council has never been elected in an election. It is a military junta that has gained power. And people have started to realise that there is a problem there.
Natalia Arno: I was one of the first to leave Russia in 2012. With the annexation of Crimea and the assassinations of political leaders, more people left, and now almost a million people have gone into exile. In 2021 it was already clear that Putin was preparing for war. With the invasion there was a new wave of exiles and the second wave came with the mobilisation.
Exiled Russians feel like outcasts, like people without nationality. They also do not know whether they will stay in those countries. Some countries grant a special visa, others do not. So their situation is very difficult. There are many people who are still in transit places, but there are other people who are being deported to Russia, because their temporary permits are expiring. We want to give them assistance so that they can do what they do best, so that they can help Ukrainians.
Protesting inside Russia is dangerous because you can be imprisoned. But why don't those abroad protest? We think it is better to train Russians abroad to help Ukrainians.
Vladimir Milov: Sanctions are working, they are producing significant effects. Their effect is gradually progressing over time. Now they are beginning to have an effect. The federal deficit for the first four months of the year exceeded the figure foreseen for the whole year. The federal budget is being overspent, but they are not getting as much money as they expect. It all has to do with the government's ability to finance things, because private investment is missing and capital has fled en masse. The central bank expects capital flight to continue in the future, so there will be no private investment. Last year, none came from India or China. So Russia is discovering a very uncomfortable truth because for the last forty years the West was Russia's main source of income and technology. China and India are not interested in helping Russia because they see it as a competitor.
Russia also accumulated a lot of reserves, fearing disconnection from the SWIFT system. But sanctions do work. Putin restored imports from third countries, which are of poorer quality and much more expensive, but industry gets its inputs. It is therefore important to monitor compliance with sanctions. You cannot embark on a project like this with a small number of people.
As for the frozen assets, there is talk of using them to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine. This money has to be collected, the vulnerabilities analysed and the money used for this. It cannot wait, reconstruction has to start now. It is Russia's fault and it is Russia that has to finance it. There are a lot of assets frozen, but they are not being used for anything. It is oligarchs' money that can be used for something good. The Russians consider money sent to foreign accounts to be ill-gotten money, so using it for the reconstruction of Ukraine is a satisfactory solution for all parties.
Putin was a mediocre person, very grey. He is the leader of an organised crime group that has been given a lot of power. Power is what drives him. We have to show strength and resistance to these kinds of people. Russia never experienced the kind of authoritarianism we have now. Putin started preparing for any attempt to overthrow him from the very first moment of his rule. He took away all communication systems from what was formerly the KGB to give it to his own praetorian guard. No one knows where he is, he has multiple residences. When a general is allowed to be in the same room as Putin he has to leave his weapons outside.
What we have to do is to continue to weaken their weakness so that, as in the 1970s, everyone starts to say, as they said then, that the communist party has to be got rid of because it can no longer rule this country. People began to feel that the war was going badly and to think that Putin was wrong.
Natalia Arno: We were the first victims of Putin's regime, we were like a kind of laboratory for the Kremlin's experiments. We always believed that we were part of the democratic world. There were many narratives in many countries against the Russians and we said that you have to differentiate between democratic Russia and Putin's Russians. When you say it is Russia's war, it is easier for Putin.
We need some certainty in our lives. Then we can focus on what we can do, on how to work with public opinion and on helping Ukraine. We need the means to help.
The Rafael del Pino Foundation is not responsible for the comments, opinions or statements made by the people who participate in its activities and which are expressed as a result of their inalienable right to freedom of expression and under their sole responsibility. The contents included in the summary of this conference, written for the Rafael del Pino Foundation by Professor Emilio González, are the result of the debates held at the meeting held for this purpose at the Foundation and are the responsibility of the authors.
The Rafael del Pino Foundation is not responsible for any comments, opinions or statements made by third parties. In this respect, the FRP is not obliged to monitor the views expressed by such third parties who participate in its activities and which are expressed as a result of their inalienable right to freedom of expression and under their own responsibility. The contents included in the summary of this conference, written for the Rafael del Pino Foundation by Professor Emilio J. González, are the result of the discussions that took place during the conference organised for this purpose at the Foundation and are the sole responsibility of its authors.
