The 80% of today's industry consists mainly of five materials: steel, coal, gold, copper and aluminium; however, the production of basic chemical intermediates, such as ammonia, methanol, ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, toluene, xylene, directly affects almost every aspect of the global economy. Therefore, unless the chemical system transitions to a sustainable operating model, it will be difficult for the other sectors that use its products to truly achieve this.
Critical metals could experience high price increases up to 2035, in particular palladium, iridium and nickel will rise by 165%, 140% and 107%, respectively, and other materials, in a scenario of an average annual inflation rate of 2% over the next decade, could see their price soar by 24%.
Only 7.3% of annual demand in the EU is met by waste recycling, in fact, most critical raw materials have an EOL-RIR (end-of-life recycling input rate) of less than 5%. As long as this percentage does not increase and alternatives are not found, dependency will continue to grow. The EU could cover more than half to three quarters of its metal needs for clean technologies by 2050 through local recycling.
An interesting approach advocates designing products that require a more efficient use of materials, for example by reducing the load of precious metals used in catalysts.
Alongside efforts to improve product design to make more optimal use of materials, advanced manufacturing techniques, such as 3D printing, offer an interesting complementary route, as they allow a more precise use of materials at lower energy costs.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is enabling a quantum leap in the search for new materials. US technology companies teamed up with several federal research labs to use AI to develop a new material that could reduce the lithium content in batteries by 70%.
Replacing critical raw materials with less critical materials ultimately remains the key strategy. Much progress is being made in this regard. The production of electrolysers to generate hydrogen requires at least 40 feedstocks and the EU currently produces only between 1% and 5%.
Instead of replacing materials linked to clean energy technologies that have already reached a high level of maturity, the transition to fully alternative technologies is also being considered. This is the case for perovskites in photovoltaics.
Another line of chemical research is aimed at replacing less abundant metals in the earth, such as palladium or platinum, with more common ones such as cobalt or manganese.