Today in the EU, however, there is still a need to harmonise testing and policies for autonomous vehicles so that they do not stop at country borders. Indeed, the current disparity of regulations and different levels of progress pose challenges that require harmonisation across the EU.
Goldman Sachs Research's forecast indicates a compound annual growth rate for the sector of around 90% between 2025 and 2030. Delaney estimates that gross margins for an autonomous vehicle operator could reach 40-50% in the next three to five years.
Strategic alliances between startups and ridesharing companies, ICT giants, large manufacturers and major users such as carriers will be crucial for the development of autonomous vehicles. Automobile manufacturers in general are unlikely to be involved in a comprehensive development of the new sector, as this would drain the resources they urgently need for the transition to electric propulsion systems.
Freight transport is the most promising area for automation. Autonomous truck sales could account for up to 30% of total new truck sales in the US by 2035. The US is best positioned to lead adoption, especially on long- and medium-haul routes, due to its total cost of ownership (TCO) advantages and the pressing need to address the driver shortage.
The development of robotic shuttles and autonomous buses, which also offered very encouraging prospects, has stalled. The former were once seen as the ideal solution for last-mile transport, with more than 25 companies vying for primacy in the sector. However, insufficient funding is preventing many companies from moving beyond small-scale trials.
As discussed in the first chapter, the good accident data, which claims 1.2 million lives on the roads, is in favour of the expansion of autonomous vehicles. It is estimated that when the market penetration rate of the vehicles is 10%, they can reduce the risks of vehicle accidents and injuries by 50%; when the penetration rate is improved to 50%, the risks can be reduced by 90%.
In terms of environmental recognition technologies, radar is already almost on a par with LiDAR thanks to the larger aperture of the latest model, which also features echolocation and applies the principle of time-of-flight measurement, as does LiDAR. In doing so, it creates point cloud images of the vehicle's environment.
However, beyond the physical risks, there are other types of threats in the cyber domain that may also condition the expansion of autonomous vehicles.