Demographics, productivity and global hegemony: Can China unseat the United States?
Summary:
On 19 May, the Rafael del Pino Foundation held a new session of its Master Lecture programme with the participation of Mauro F. Guillén, William H. Wurster Professor of Multinational Management and Vice-Dean of the MBA Program for Executives at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Under the title “Can China unseat the United States? Demographics, productivity and global hegemony”.”, The economist and sociologist offered a broad analysis of the dynamics that will determine the international balance of power in the coming decades.
Throughout his speech, Guillén argued that the rivalry between China and the United States cannot be understood solely in terms of the relative size of their economies, but requires the incorporation of factors such as demographic evolution, productivity, technological capacity, military power and institutional strength.
Global hegemony depends on a number of factors
To address this question, the Wharton professor presented an index of global hegemony based on three variables: GDP size, GDP per capita and military projection capability as measured by the navy. Based on this model, he argued that China could come significantly closer to the United States in terms of international influence, but is unlikely to surpass it on a sustained basis throughout the 21st century.
He explained that projections show that US leadership continues to be underpinned by structural advantages that are very difficult to replicate, especially in technological innovation, talent attractiveness and international financial integration.
China's main constraint: the demographic crisis
One of the main focuses of the conference was the analysis of China's demographic decline. Guillén stressed that China is simultaneously facing an accelerating ageing population and a persistent fall in the birth rate, a trend that he considers practically irreversible even after the abandonment of the one-child policy.
In his opinion, factors such as the high cost of child rearing, the changing role of women in society, urbanisation and cultural changes make a significant recovery in fertility highly unlikely. In this context, he warned that demographic decline will have profound economic, financial and geopolitical consequences for the Asian country.
Immigration, the United States' great strategic advantage
In the face of China's structural limitations, Guillén identified immigration as one of America's great historical strengths. According to his simulations, even in scenarios where China achieves very significant advances in robotisation and artificial intelligence, the US would maintain global primacy if it is able to sustain sufficient migration flows.
The academic also highlighted the decisive role of immigrants in strategic US sectors such as technology, scientific research and healthcare, recalling that a substantial part of the country's large technology companies were founded or co-founded by immigrants.
Artificial intelligence and robotisation: a new technological race
The conference also addressed the impact of artificial intelligence and automation on productivity and economic growth. Guillén noted that China currently has significant advantages in industrial robotisation and advanced manufacturing, while the United States has a particularly strong position in technology services and digital platforms.
In this respect, he argued that artificial intelligence can partially mitigate the negative effects of population ageing, although he warned that it will also generate tensions in the labour markets and will require significant educational and professional adaptation processes.
A rivalry different from the Cold War
Another of the central aspects of the speech was the comparison between the current rivalry between China and the United States and the old confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union. Guillén insisted that the two situations are profoundly different, as today the two great powers are fully integrated in the same commercial, financial and technological circuits.
This interdependence means that neither country can seriously harm the other without also incurring very high economic costs, which introduces a degree of geopolitical complexity far beyond that of the classic Cold War.
The limits of Chinese soft power
While acknowledging China's impressive economic and technological rise, Guillén was sceptical about its ability to build a global leadership comparable to that of the US. Among the main limitations he pointed to the limited international appeal of its political model, growing nationalism, the international weakness of the renminbi and its geographical difficulties in projecting maritime power.
Against this, he argued that the United States still retains an enormous capacity for cultural influence thanks to elements such as English, Hollywood, major technology platforms and the international prestige of its universities and innovation centres.
Europe and the risk of stagnation
Europe also featured prominently in the analysis. Guillén warned about the stagnation of European productivity and criticised the insufficient commitment to education, innovation and emerging technology industries.
In his opinion, while the United States and China have managed to build large business ecosystems around the sectors of the future, Europe continues to be excessively tied to traditional industries. He also defended the need to rethink European defence policy by focusing on technologies associated with asymmetric warfare, such as drones and automated systems, instead of reproducing conventional military models inherited from the 20th century.
Education and human capital as a strategic priority
In the colloquium that followed, Guillén insisted that productivity will be the main determining factor of economic growth in the coming decades. For this reason, he argued that countries such as Spain should concentrate their efforts on strengthening education, vocational training and human capital.
As examples of success, he cited Ireland, Singapore and Denmark, economies which, he explained, have managed to transform their international position thanks to sustained policies of educational investment and technological modernisation.
An optimistic view of globalisation
The session concluded with a reflection on the future of globalisation. In contrast to the thesis that anticipates an irreversible de-globalisation process, Guillén argued that global integration continues to advance, especially in areas such as technology, the circulation of information and cultural production.
In his opinion, globalisation does not lead to a homogenisation of the world, but precisely to a growing differentiation between countries, companies and societies, which seek to position themselves strategically within an increasingly competitive and interconnected international environment.
The Rafael del Pino Foundation is not responsible for the comments, opinions or statements made by the people who participate in its activities and which are expressed as a result of their inalienable right to freedom of expression and under their sole responsibility. The contents included in the summary of this conference are the result of the debates held at the meeting held for this purpose at the Foundation and are the responsibility of their authors.
The Rafael del Pino Foundation is not responsible for any comments, opinions or statements made by third parties. In this respect, the FRP is not obliged to monitor the views expressed by such third parties who participate in its activities and which are expressed as a result of their inalienable right to freedom of expression and under their own responsibility. The contents included in the summary of this conference are the result of the discussions that took place during the conference organised for this purpose at the Foundation and are the sole responsibility of its authors.
